Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends and Their Implications on Green Gram Production in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya

Environmental Sciences | Data analysis | https://doi.org/10.47262/SL/11.2.132023400

Zipporah M. Maluvu 1*, Christopher Oludhe 1, Patrick Kisangau 1, 2, Jacinta Mwende Maweu 3

1 Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi, PO Box 30197-00100, Chiromo Lane, Nairobi, Kenya

2 Department of Life Sciences, South Eastern Kenya University, P.O. Box 170-90200, Kitui, Kenya

3 Department of Journalism and Communication, University of Nairobi, PO Box 30197-00100, University of Nairobi, Chiromo Lane, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract

Farmers have been facing numerous challenges in the production of green gram with declining yields being the main challenge. This can be attributed to the declining rainfall amounts and unreliable rainfall patterns, increased temperatures and high infestation of the crop by pests and diseases. In this study, climate data of the Makueni County on rainfall and temperature from 1991 to 2020 were obtained from the Kenya Meteorology Department. The data were analyzed in three sets; monthly, annual-monthly and seasonal time series. The analysis focuses on descriptive statistics and trend analysis. The results showed that there was no significant trend in the rainfall data at all three levels; monthly, annual-monthly and seasonal. The absence of a significant trend was associated with the high variability in the time series; hence, instability and unpredictability. The temperature time series exhibited positive linear trends where the maximum temperature increased by 0.003°C and the minimum temperature increased by 0.001°C per month. Such trends were detected in selected monthly as well as seasonal minimum and maximum temperature time series. The unpredictability of rainfall patterns and consistently but gradually rising temperature levels could be attributed to climate change. The crop optimum growing conditions are not attained, therefore, reducing production. Rapid deployment of integrated climate-smart farming techniques and adaptation strategies in the region is recommended for the green gram value chain to build resilience in the production of green gram to achieve sustainable yields.